The electric loader market surged ahead, with penetration rates surpassing 20%. Will this momentum persist into 2026?

In 2025, China's loader market fully shook off the fluctuations and adjustments of the preceding two years, achieving high-quality recovery characterized by ‘dual growth domestically and internationally, with electric models leading the charge. Annual cumulative loader sales reached 128,000 units, marking the third-highest record in nearly a decade (surpassed only by 2021's 140,000 units and 2020's 130,000 units), with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.35% representing a seven-year high. Electric loaders demonstrated particularly outstanding performance, with annual sales reaching 29,771 units – a staggering 165% year-on-year surge. This marks a leap from the thousand-unit level to the thirty-thousand-unit level in just three years, signifying the industry's formal transition from the introductory phase to an explosive growth period.

I. Overall Loader Market: Synergistic Recovery Driven by Domestic and International Factors, with Exports as Key Support

(1) Annual Sales Achieve Decade-High Performance According to data from the China Construction Machinery Association, total loader sales reached 128,000 units in 2025, representing an 18.35% year-on-year increase – the highest growth rate since 2019. Monthly trends show positive year-on-year growth across all 12 months, with November and December maintaining double-digit growth exceeding 30%: November sales reached 11,419 units (up 32.1% year-on-year), while December sales hit 12,236 units (up 30% year-on-year), highlighting robust market demand through the year-end surge.

(II) Domestic demand steadily recovers, export contribution increases

1. Domestic market: Cumulative sales reached 66,330 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.10%. Although this represents a three-year high, it remains below historical peaks (over 100,000 units) due to optimized infrastructure investment structures and the substitution effect of excavators. Demand was concentrated on equipment upgrades in key sectors such as coal, steel, ports, and building materials.

2. Export Market: Emerged as one of the year's standout achievements. December exports reached 6,945 units, surging 41.47% year-on-year – the highest monthly growth rate in 32 months and the second-highest monthly export volume on record (surpassed only by March 2023's 7,813 units). Annual exports totalled 61,737 units, up 14.58% year-on-year, accounting for 48.21% of total sales. This balanced the domestic market, with overseas channels becoming the core ‘ballast’ stabilizing market fluctuations.

II. Electric Loader Production and Sales: Volume and Growth Rate Rise in Tandem – A Comprehensive Monthly Perspective

(I) Core Monthly Production and Sales Details (January-December 2025)

(2) Key Characteristics of Monthly Trends

1. Rapid First-Quarter Momentum: Sales surged from 1,086 units in January to 2,802 units in March, with March reaching an annual peak of 308.5% year-on-year growth. This was primarily driven by the release of replacement demand for National IV emission standards coinciding with the spring construction season.

2. Second Quarter ‘High-Level Fluctuation’: Sales stabilised between 2,700 and 3,049 units from April to June, with June reaching the annual peak of 3,049 units. Both 5-tonne (62.1% share) and 6-tonne (29.6% share) models saw robust supply and demand, reflecting concentrated infrastructure and mining sector requirements.

3. Third-quarter ‘short-term adjustment’: From July to September, outdoor construction demand weakened due to high temperatures, causing sales to retreat to 2,300–2,600 units. Nevertheless, electric penetration remained above 24%, highlighting the resilient support from policy and environmental requirements.

4. Fourth-quarter ‘Steady Conclusion’: Sales rebounded to over 2,700 units from October to December. Although December saw penetration drop to 22.25% due to surging industry exports (domestic-focused electric loaders), sales of under-3-tonne models reached 72 units (up 161.1% month-on-month), while models of 7 tonnes and above remained stable at around 130 units, indicating a clear trend towards diversified demand across tonnage segments.

III. Segment Structure: Diversified Tonnage Expansion with Significant Scenario and Regional Differentiation

(I) Tonnage Structure: From ‘Single-Pole Dominance’ to ‘Multiple Growth Points’

1. 5-tonne Class Remains Core but Share Continues Optimisation: Annual sales reached 16,841 units, accounting for 56.6% of the market – an 8.2 percentage point decrease from 2024. December's share further declined to 55.07%, signalling the market's transition from ‘single-tonnage dependency’ to ‘full-range deployment’.

2. 6-tonne class emerges as second growth curve: Annual sales reached 7,801 units, accounting for 26.2% of the market. Its December share rose to 30.12%, demonstrating rapid penetration in heavy-duty applications such as large-scale mines and ports, becoming the core growth driver for medium-to-large electric loaders.

3. Concurrent Breakthroughs in Small and Ultra-Large Tonnage Segments: - Models under 3 tonnes recorded annual sales of 297 units, doubling month-on-month in December, catering to urban municipal and small-scale engineering applications. - Models at 7 tonnes and above achieved annual sales of 1,143 units, progressively replacing fuel-powered equipment in mining regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, with sales exceeding 130 units for two consecutive months in November and December.

(II) Regional Markets: Domestic Dominance with Emerging Overseas Presence

1. Domestic Market: North China and East China Lead, County-Level Potential Emerges: Domestic sales accounted for over 95% of total volume, with North China (32.1%) and East China (28.7%) – traditional construction machinery consumption hubs – contributing over 60% of sales. The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, leveraging the Western Land-Sea New Channel, became an export pilot zone targeting ASEAN, with electric loader exports growing 62% year-on-year by 2025.

2. Overseas Market: Early-stage development with impressive growth rates: Annual exports reached approximately 1,488 units (5% share), primarily targeting Southeast Asia and Africa. Benefiting from RCEP tariff concessions, December exports surged by 85%. However, constrained by limited charging/swapping infrastructure, exports remain dominated by small-tonnage models.

(3) Application Scenarios: From Enclosed to Open, Continuously Expanding Penetration Boundaries Electric loaders have gradually extended beyond initial enclosed scenarios like ports and coal handling into environmentally sensitive sectors such as municipal engineering (21% share), green construction (18%), and steel mills (15%). Among these, logistics applications like aggregate handling and bulk grain loading/unloading recorded the fastest growth (210% year-on-year). County-level and small-to-medium-scale project markets have emerged as new blue oceans, with county orders accounting for 35% of total orders in Q4 2025 – a 12 percentage point increase from Q1.

IV. Competition Further Concentrates, Industry Margins Face Concerns, Marginal Players Accelerate Exit

The competitive landscape has further consolidated towards leading players, broadly forming three tiers: Tier One comprises Liugong and XCMG; Tier Two includes Lingong, Longgong, and Sany; Tier Three features Shantui, JG New Energy, Lovol, and Changlin. Other manufacturers engage only in sporadic production and sales, largely in a state of suspended operations or facing elimination.

(i) Potential Risks Behind Rapid Growth 1. Intensifying Homogeneous Competition: While leading manufacturers have expanded market share, converging product specifications have triggered price wars, driving some firms' gross margins below 10% and exacerbating the phenomenon of ‘revenue growth without profit growth’. 2. Core Component Dependency and Cost Pressures: Battery costs still account for 40% of expenses, with fluctuations in upstream raw material prices significantly impacting profitability through battery cost variations. 3. Infrastructure constraints on penetration: Charging networks currently cover only major mining areas and ports, with county-level coverage below 15%. In sectors like water conservancy and infrastructure, inadequate charging infrastructure severely hampers further adoption.

(II) Future Development Outlook Electric loaders are projected to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 30% between 2026 and 2030, with market penetration expected to exceed 80% by 2030.

1. The electric loader market will experience explosive growth in 2025, achieving a 130% annual increase from the 2024 baseline of 13,000 units. This surge stems from the maturing technology and application ecosystem of existing products alongside further cost reductions, reflecting the sector's transition from the introductory phase to rapid growth in its electrification journey.

2. The author assesses that with domestic loader penetration exceeding 40% (surpassing 50% in certain regions), subsequent application scenarios will enter a critical phase. Concurrently, rising material costs—particularly for non-ferrous metals and upstream battery components—will drive up the cost of the three electric systems. exerting upward pressure on vehicle pricing. Consequently, the electrification penetration rate will depart from the rapid expansion witnessed over the preceding three years. Annual growth rates are projected to decline significantly to 40%-50% over the next two years, potentially reaching approximately 45,000 units by 2026, with subsequent annual growth rates expected to decrease further.

3. The growth rates for small-tonnage (3 tonnes and below) and ultra-large-tonnage (6 tonnes and above) segments are anticipated to exceed the overall market growth rate in the coming years.

4. Technology has reached a bottleneck phase, with enhanced energy efficiency and intelligence becoming the primary development directions for electric loaders. Pioneering breakthroughs in these areas will yield significant market dividends.